US stocks were bid across the board on Monday, with notable outperformance in the Nasdaq - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open

US stocks were bid across the board on Monday, with notable outperformance in the Nasdaq.
The Dollar was lower to start the week, amid the broad risk-on sentiment despite the escalating Israel/Iran conflict, as some desks point towards hopes of a ceasefire and "peak" geopolitical risk already set in.
T-Notes were sold across the curve as elevated oil prices kept the curve pressured.
The crude complex was lower to end the first trading session of the week, wiping out the initial strength upon the re-opening amid Israel/Iran fighting.
Looking ahead, highlights include the BoJ announcement and press conference, and Supply from Australia.

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SNAPSHOT

US TRADE

US stocks were bid across the board on Monday, with notable outperformance in the Nasdaq. The majority of sectors were green, although Energy, Health Care and Utilities were hit, with energy stocks tracking crude prices lower.
Risk on trade was seen despite the continued conflict in the Middle East, but reports in WSJ suggested Iran wants to de-escalate, which took crude prices to session lows and stocks to highs but ultimately finished off best levels as the two sides continued with the missile exchanges.
SPX +0.95% at 6,034, NDX +1.42% at 21,938, DJI +0.75% at 42,515, RUT +1.15% at 2,125.
Click here for a detailed summary.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

Meta (META) introduced channel subscriptions, promoted channels and ads in status in WhatsApp updates tab.
US President Trump's organisation announced Trump Mobile and will launch phones Made In America.
OpenAI and Microsoft (MSFT) tensions are reaching a boiling point, via WSJ; "The startup, growing frustrated with its partner, has discussed making antitrust complaints to regulators".

DATA RECAP

US NY Fed Manufacturing (Jun) -16.0 vs. Exp. -5.5 (Prev. -9.2). New orders -14.2 (prev. +7.0). Prices paid +46.8 (prev. +59.0). Employment +4.7 (prev. -5.1). Six-month business conditions +21.2 (prev. -2.0).

TRADE/TARIFF

US President Trump expected to sign proclamation finalizing US-UK trade deal in coming days; is to cover beef, steel, autos and ethanol, according to Reuters citing sources.
UK PM Starmer and US President Trump set to agree to enact tariff-cutting deal and to seal deal at Canada G-7, according to Bloomberg sources.
Canadian Minister in charge of US trade said he is confident Canada is making progress on a deal with the US; not there yet in regards to an economic deal with the US, according to Reuters.
US President Trump said going to talk about trade and many other things; throwing Russia out of G8 was a mistake. The primary focus of talks with Canada is trade. A trade deal with Canada is achievable, but both parties have to agree. "Wouldn't mind" China joining G7.
US President Trump does not intend to sign G7 statement on Israel-Iran, CBS reports.
The European Commission said reports suggesting the EU accepts a US tariff of 10% are speculative and do not reflect the current state of discussions.

FX

The Dollar was lower to start the week, amid the broad risk-on sentiment despite the escalating Israel/Iran conflict, as some desks point towards hopes of a ceasefire and "peak" geopolitical risk already set in.
G10 FX was dominated by global risk sentiment, as opposed to much currency-specific newsflow as Antipodeans outperformed, given the risk-on environment, while havens (CHF, JPY) lagged.
Swissy and Yen underperformed, but the BoJ overnight is the highlight. The central bank is expected to keep rates at 0.50%, according to all 60 economists polled by Reuters, with global trade and geopolitical uncertainty supporting the likelihood of a pause.
EUR, GBP, and CAD all saw similar gains. In terms of central bank speakers, ECB's de Guindos said EUR/USD at 1.15 is no big obstacle as appreciation is not rapid and volatility is not extreme, and that markets understood perfectly well the ECB post-decision message: ECB is very close to the target.

FIXED INCOME

T-Notes were sold across the curve as elevated oil prices kept the curve pressured.
US sells USD 13bln of 20-year bonds; Tail: 0.0bps (prev. 1.2bps, six-auction average 0.1bps); WI: 4.942%. High Yield: 4.942% (prev. 5.047%, six-auction average 4.818%). B/C: 2.68x (prev. 2.46x, six-auction average 2.59x). Dealer: 13.4% (prev. 16.9%, six-auction average 14.8%). Direct: 19.9% (prev. 14.1%, six-auction average 18.1%). Indirect: 66.7% (prev. 69.0%, six-auction average 67.2%)

COMMODITIES

The crude complex was lower to end the first trading session of the week, wiping out the initial strength upon the re-opening amid Israel/Iran fighting.
OPEC MOMR: 2025 & 2026 global oil demand forecasts maintained at 1.3mln BPD, 2025 supply forecasts held at 0.8mln BPD.

GEOPOLITICS

MIDDLE EAST

Iran said they will continue to strike Israel until it stops its attacks, via Al Hadath.
The Israeli army announced targeting a communications centre used for military purposes by Iranian forces.
Israeli PM Netanyahu said he is not interested in peace talks with Iran, according to an ABC News reporter.
US official to Al Jazeera said the Pentagon is considering sending additional reinforcements to the Middle East, but a decision has not yet been made.
Iran is preparing for the 'largest and most intense missile attack in history on Israeli soil', according to Iranian state media.
Israeli political source said they do not know how interested Iran is in talks now, according to Al Arabiya; Will not stop for any talks and are seeking a final agreement to dismantle the Iranian nuclear project.
US President Trump said Iran is not winning this war; they should talk before it's too late; Iranians want to talk about de-escalation.
Iranian air defence activated at Isfahan nuclear facilities against 'hostile target', Iran state media reports.
Israeli PM Netanyahu said he is not interested in peace talks with Iran, according to an ABC News reporter.
Key Israeli and intelligence centres including Ramat David airbase near Haifa are on Iran's list of targets; "proportionate response" in the coming hours, via Iran's Student News Network. Iran tells the UN that any cooperation by third countries in Israel's strikes makes them complicit in the legal responsibility and consequences of the crisis.
Israeli Foreign Minister told EU's Kallas that Israel has not finished its operation in Iran and Israel will act to complete it, according to Reuters.
Israeli PM Netanyahu on the possibility of assassinating Iran Supreme Leader Khamenei said "I will not detail our plans publicly, but we will do whatever it takes", according to Reuters.
Iran intercepted drones targeting the South Pars gas field, according to Mehr.
Oman and Qatar are leading the effort to get Iran and the United States back to the negotiating table and end the conflict in Iran, according to a European official cited by the Washington Post. Iranian leaders have said they are open to resuming nuclear talks, but they want Israel to stop its attacks first, the official said.
A US official tells i24 news that preparations are being made to allow joining the attack - if Trump gives the green light. US Central Command thinks it is necessary to join, but other senior administration officials are against it.
Iran has been urgently signalling that it seeks an end to hostilities and resumption of talks over its nuclear programs, sending messages to Israel and the US via Arab intermediaries, according to WSJ citing Middle Eastern and European officials. In the midst of a ferocious Israeli air campaign, Tehran has told Arab officials they would be open to return to the negotiating table as long as the US doesn't join the attack. They also passed messages to Israel saying it was in the interest of both sides to keep the violence contained.
Israeli military said it has identified missiles launched from Iran towards Israel.
The Israeli army announces targeting a communications centre used for military purposes by Iranian forces.
Iranian air defence activated at Isfahan nuclear facilities against 'hostile target', Iran state media reports.
IRGC called on residents in Tel Aviv to evacuate as soon as possible, according to state media.
G7 leaders have issued a draft statement on the Iran-Israel conflict according to Reuters sources. Israel has a right to defend itself, Iran should never have a nuclear weapon. US President Trump has yet to sign off on the statement.
Israeli military said it is continuing to strike military targets within central Iran.
Iran reportedly asked Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Oman to ask US President Trump to press Israel for an immediate ceasefire, according to Reuters sources.
"Iran told Oman and Qatar that it will not be engaging in negotiations with the United States while Iranian cities “remain under attack” from Israel", via CNN's Atwood.
USS Nimitz carrier group is transitioning to the Middle East ahead of schedule, via Fox citing a US official.
Israel's Defence Minister, reportedly with reference to the Iranian state broadcaster being the target of Israel's next attack, says "The evacuation of the residents of the area begins", according to Kann's Blumenthal.
Iranian Advisor to the IRGC Commander said "We are ready for a long war and haven't yet made strategic use of missile capabilities".
A high-ranking Iranian diplomat reportedly revealed to IranWire that Iran’s military and political leadership are prepared to give up uranium enrichment to preserve the regime, as they “Need a face-saving solution”.

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

EU Energy Commissioner said the proposal to ban Russian gas will equate to a force majeure on Russian contracts, and will not offer compensation to nations for phasing out relevant contracts.

OTHERS

US President Trump said going to talk about trade and many other things; throwing Russia out of G8 was a mistake. The primary focus of talks with Canada is trade. A trade deal with Canada is achievable, but both parties have to agree. "Wouldn't mind" China joining G7.
US President Trump does not intend to sign G7 statement on Israel-Iran, CBS reports.

ASIA-PAC