Cornered Iran faces humiliation or war as leadership left on brink by Israeli strikes

EXCLUSIVE: Air raids deep into Tehran killed senior commanders and exposed Iran's defences - now the regime must retaliate or risk appearing powerless.

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By Marco Giannangeli, Defence and Diplomatic Editor

Israeli strikes leave damage in residential areas in TehranANALYSIS

Buildings in residential areas across Tehran showing damage following strikes (Image: Anadolu via Getty Images)

Israel’s successful strikes on Iran have left the Islamic regime facing a daunting dilemma: how to respond without triggering a broader war it is ill-prepared to fight. The long-anticipated assault followed the expiry of US President Donald Trump’s 60-day ultimatum for Tehran to deliver a nuclear deal. Though officially a unilateral action, the scale and timing of the operation suggest a broader strategic message.

More than 200 Israeli Air Force aircraft fired around 330 precise munitions on 300 targets across Iran. While nuclear facilities were the primary focus, the strikes also eliminated several senior military figures, including Armed Forces Chief Mohammad Bagheri, General Hossein Salami, Commander-in-chief of the Iran's notorious Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Gholam Ali Rashid, head of the Khatam-al Anbiya Central HQ.

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Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (Image: KHAMENEI.IR/AFP via Getty Images)

Israel struck now because the window was right - not just to hit nuclear sites, but to go after human targets. That opportunity may not come again,” said former Israeli deputy national security adviser Prof Chuck Freilich.

Mossad-led special forces also deployed drones from inside Iran using Ukraine-style tactics to disable Tehran’s already-compromised air defences.

The operation’s sheer scope, combining air power, intelligence and internal sabotage, appeared designed not only to degrade military capability but to shock the regime into strategic paralysis.

“The sheer depth and precision of the strikes - reaching into the heart of Tehran and eliminating key figures such as IRGC chief Major General Hossein Salami - underscore the extent of Israeli intelligence penetration and the degraded state of Iran’s air defence systems,” said Dr Burcu Ozcelik, Senior Research Fellow in Middle East Security at RUSI. “For Tehran, this is not only a tactical loss but a profound strategic humiliation.”

But humiliation is not a strategy. Iran must now decide whether to absorb the blow, retaliate symbolically, or escalate in a way that risks direct US involvement - and with it, regime survival.

Neil Melvin, Director of International Security at RUSI, suggested that Israel’s move was intended to pre-empt diplomacy.

“A key element of Israel’s military action is likely to be a calculation that this is the moment to reshape the political and diplomatic environment through escalation that will curtail the US diplomatic approach to Iran.”

However, sources close to the Trump administration said that while he still hopes to secure a deal, the president had become “completely frustrated” over Iran’s unwillingness to compromise, especially on the key issue of uranium enrichment.

Commander-in-chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Hossein Salami

Killed: Commander-in-chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Hossein Salami (Image: Getty)

Whatever the case, Tehran is now under pressure to respond — not retreat.

Yet its options are severely limited. Iran’s conventional military cannot match Israel’s, let alone a combined Israeli–US response.

And its long-standing proxy networks in Lebanon, Syria and Gaza have been heavily degraded by Israel’s post–October 7 campaign.

“Iran’s key proxy options are essentially acting as spoilers at the moment,” said Urban Coningham, a RUSI research fellow, pointing to potential flare-ups in Lebanon, Iraq, Jordan and Yemen. “These actions would raise the political cost of Israel’s offensive… [by] affecting global trade and endangering key initiatives by the Gulf, the US and European states to stabilise the region.”

The Houthis in Yemen remain a potential exception.

As Ozcelik noted, the fragile US-brokered ceasefire there “now hangs in the balance - potentially unravelling if the group is mobilised to act on Iran’s behalf.”

Such a move would endanger Red Sea shipping and risk direct Western intervention - but it might offer Tehran a form of indirect retaliation with plausible deniability.

Other options include cyberattacks, limited missile strikes, or operations against Israeli or Jewish targets abroad - each carrying risks of failure, misattribution, or uncontrollable escalation.

More dangerously, Iran could target US assets in the region. On Wednesday, Iranian Defence Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh warned: “If a conflict is imposed on us… all US bases are within our reach and we will boldly target them in host countries.”

Such a move would all but guarantee a forceful American response. But as Prof Freilich observed, Iran’s internal political dynamics may force it toward a rash decision.

“This wouldn’t be the first time they’ve made a major miscalculation,” he said. “It’s very possible the domestic politics will force them to do something they don’t even want to do.”

Tehran’s population - already strained by economic hardship and isolation - has now witnessed explosions in the capital not seen since the Iran–Iraq war.

“There’s an element of trying to show the Iranian people that they are not being served by their regime… that they can’t be protected by their regime masters,” Prof Freilich added.

That psychological blow may matter more than any military loss.

Iran’s Supreme Leader now faces not just an external threat, but an internal crisis of legitimacy.

A weak response could be seen as surrender. A strong one might trigger devastation.

“The Iranian response might be delayed or split into multiple phases,” warned RUSI’s Matthew Savill.

“But if Iran believes the US or others were involved, then regional targets include the US Fifth Fleet in Bahrain and air facilities in Qatar.”

Tehran is boxed in - and that may be when it is most dangerous.

Its next move will determine whether this becomes a region-wide war, or the beginning of the Islamic Republic’s long-term decline.

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