As Counting Continues in Key States, Biden Makes Gains in Pennsylvania

As elections officials around the country tally results, both President Trump and his challenger, former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr., say they expect to prevail.

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In Philadelphia on Thursday, demonstrators outside the Pennsylvania Convention Center called for all votes to be counted.Credit...Victor J. Blue for The New York Times
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Nick Corasaniti in Philadelphia

The votes being counted in Pennsylvania do not include any mail ballots arriving after Nov. 3. Those are being kept segregated. This count is for votes in by Election Day.

See Pennsylvania results

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Maggie Astor in New York

Winning Pennsylvania would clinch the election for Biden regardless of what happens in any of the other states that remain to be called.

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Mark Landler in London

The next few batches of votes to be counted could vault Biden past Trump in pivotal Pennsylvania. That raises a politically fraught question for the TV networks: When would they call the race?
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Nick Corasaniti in Philadelphia

Election officials in Philadelphia said more vote totals would be released Friday morning from the roughly 54,000 outstanding ballots in the city.

See Pennsylvania results

Benjamin Mueller
Nov. 6, 2020, 6:48 a.m. ET

Georgia matters in the presidential math. But it’s symbolically important, too.

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Patrons at a bar in Atlanta watching election results Tuesday night.Credit...Audra Melton for The New York Times

For much of this year’s campaign, Democrats saw Georgia as a relatively remote target. Joseph R. Biden Jr. did not visit the state until a week before the election. But with Mr. Biden now pulling into a narrow lead, the state could block President Trump from reaching the 270 electoral votes needed to clinch the presidency.

Beyond its value in Electoral College math, the prospect of winning Georgia holds enormous symbolic significance for the Democrats, who last carried the state under Bill Clinton in 1992.

Georgia’s demographics have grown more favorable for the party, with an increasingly young and diverse population creating an opening there as it has in other Sun Belt states that were once solidly Republican.

And since Stacey Abrams lost a tight contest for Georgia governor in 2018, she has tried to help register more nonwhite voters and resist voter suppression, efforts that Democrats have said made the state more competitive.

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Stephanie Saul in New York

In Georgia, Biden increased his lead to 1,096 over Trump after another batch of ballots came in from Clayton County, a deep blue county just south of Atlanta.

See Georgia results

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Stephanie Saul in New York

If Biden's lead holds in Georgia, he will be the first Democrat the state has backed in a presidential race since Bill Clinton in 1992.
Benjamin Mueller
Nov. 6, 2020, 5:39 a.m. ET

In Georgia, a dual runoff for Senate seats is growing increasingly likely.

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The Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate Jon Ossoff in Atlanta on Tuesday.Credit...Brynn Anderson/Associated Press

Ballots being counted overnight in Georgia, which put Joseph R. Biden Jr. ahead of President Trump in the state, also made it more likely that the state would host two runoffs in January for its Senate seats, with control of the chamber potentially on the line. The latest batches of ballots from Clayton County narrowed the lead of Senator David Perdue, a Republican, over Jon Ossoff, his Democratic challenger.

With 98 percent of the state’s votes counted by 4 a.m., Mr. Perdue had 49.8 percent of the vote, short of the 50 percent he would need to win the contest outright. The other Senate race in the state had already appeared headed for a runoff. As of Friday morning, Democrats had picked up a single Senate seat in the election, putting them in a 48-to-48 tie with Republicans in the chamber with four seats left to be decided.

Republican victories in some hotly contested seats had already dampened Democrats’ hopes of taking back the Senate. The parties each need 51 seats to control the chamber — or 50 if they also hold the presidency, because the vice president can cast deciding votes. Democrats are leading the race to keep control of the House of Representatives.

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Stephanie Saul in New York

Election workers in surburban Gwinnett County are expected to finalize its vote this morning. Gwinnett is a blue-leaning county and the vote there has been breaking 2-1 for Biden.

See Georgia results

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Stephanie Saul in New York

Some counties sent election workers home overnight, but those in Clayton counted through the early morning, the reason the county was responsible for pushing Mr. Biden into the lead in Georgia.
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Mark Landler in London

Georgia would be a landmark political and moral victory for Biden. But its short-term importance is purely mathematical: if it holds, it would block Trump from reaching 270 electoral votes.
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Stephanie Saul in New York

The votes that pushed Biden ahead of Trump in Georgia came from Clayton County, an overwhelmingly Democratic county and home to Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport.

See Georgia results

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Benjamin Mueller
Nov. 6, 2020, 4:04 a.m. ET

Attention turns to Georgia as Trump’s lead narrows in the state.

In the early hours of Friday, all eyes were on Clayton County, Georgia, as election workers in face masks and visors counted absentee ballots through the night. The latest batch narrowed President Trump’s edge in the state to 463 votes, with roughly 2,500 votes left to count in Clayton and more across the state.

“We are going to stay here until every single absentee ballot is counted,” Shauna Dozier, the director of Clayton County’s board of elections, said in a televised interview with CNN shortly after 2 a.m., adding that she expected the county to finish its count later in the morning.

“We’re doing our best to just make sure that we get every vote counted,” she said. “Whatever it takes to get that done, we’re going to do it.”

Nicholas Bogel-Burroughs
Nov. 6, 2020, 3:56 a.m. ET

Unforeseen issues on Election Day were mostly municipal malfunctions.

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Election workers sorting ballots in Pennsylvania on Wednesday morning.Credit...Kriston Jae Bethel for The New York Times

In a year when interference by foreign governments, armed protesters and voter suppression were considered the main threats at the polls, some Election Day holdups were the result of everyday municipal malfunctions.

Soggy ballots jammed voting machines, a burst pipe flooded a room with absentee ballots and polling places ran on generators after lingering power failures caused by Hurricane Zeta: The setbacks highlight the decentralized nature of national elections, which rely on hundreds of thousands of everyday people to work the polls.

They also call attention to a need for better basic infrastructure in some voting locations, including new polling places to reduce crowding and improved systems to register online or vote by mail.

Lawrence Norden, the director of the election reform program at New York University’s Brennan Center for Justice, said election officials seemed better prepared this year, in part because of the microscope the coronavirus pandemic and fears of meddling placed over the 2020 election. Congress also sent $400 million to the states as part of the economic stimulus bill signed by President Trump in March to help them make adjustments for safe elections, although some Democrats said at the time that more money was needed.

“There’s no question that our election infrastructure is chronically underfunded,” Mr. Norden said, although he noted that more money, private and public, had flowed to election planning in recent years.

In the 2018 midterm elections, voters cast ballots at about 230,871 polling places, where more than 637,000 poll workers — two-thirds of whom were older than 60 — signed them in, guided them to their ballots and counted their votes. That patchwork of election districts and poll workers makes mishaps impossible to avoid, experts said, but can also keep an incident at one polling place from affecting a broader region.

“The fact that we do fundamentally run elections by volunteer citizens in their local communities, that keeps a minor or even a major problem happening in one place from bringing down our democracy,” said Maggie Toulouse Oliver, the New Mexico secretary of state and president of the National Association of Secretaries of State.

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The New York Times

As more votes were counted early Friday in Georgia, Biden is now trailing Trump by just 463 votes, narrowing a gap of more than 18,000 at the start of Thursday.

See Georgia results

The New York Times
Nov. 6, 2020, 2:00 a.m. ET

A night of waiting, counting and protesting.

As election officials in several battleground states continued to count votes on Thursday night, small groups of Biden and Trump supporters held demonstrations in several cities.

Marc Santora
Nov. 6, 2020, 1:22 a.m. ET

Lindsey Graham defends Trump’s false claims of voter fraud.

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Senator Lindsey Graham, Republican of South Carolina, in Columbia, South Carolina.Credit...Sean Rayford/Getty Images

Hours after President Trump’s son took to Twitter to complain that none of the Republicans with aspirations to run for president in 2024 were publicly siding with his father, Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina defended Mr. Trump’s baseless claims of widespread voter fraud.

Appearing on Fox News, Mr. Graham, who is one of the president’s most loyal allies on Capitol Hill, did not offer any evidence to support the spurious claims of the White House. While he objected to the vote counting in Pennsylvania, he said he supported the process in Arizona.

“I trust Arizona, I don’t trust Philadelphia,” he said.

Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas followed his Republican colleague on the network and accused Democrats of trying to steal the election. He also offered no evidence to back his assertion.

The two senators were among several Republicans — including Representative Kevin McCarthy, the House minority leader, and Representative Doug Collins of Georgia — who on Thursday suggested without evidence that something was awry in the election.

“Everyone who’s listening, do not be quiet,” Mr. McCarthy said on Fox News. “Do not be silent about this. We cannot allow this to happen before our very eyes.”

Other Republicans have either rebuked the president for his false claims of voter fraud, or offered statements that stopped far short of endorsing his views.

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Mike Baker
Nov. 6, 2020, 12:30 a.m. ET

Think the results are too slow? Alaska shows it could be worse.

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Alaska has some generous ballot return deadlines and won’t count absentee votes until next Tuesday.Credit...Michael Armstrong/Homer Tribune, via Associated Press

SEATTLE — There are a half-dozen states where the presidential outcome remains unclear. Five of them are swing states. And then there is Alaska.

While President Trump is favored in Alaska and holds about 63 percent of the votes tallied so far, so few votes have been counted that news media outlets have resisted calling the race. And there will not be much clarity until next week.

The glacial pace of tabulation is a result of an election plan that involves waiting to count absentee votes until Nov. 10. Alaska elections officials have said they planned to check each absentee vote against official precinct books from Election Day to ensure that someone did not vote twice.

The sprawling state also has some generous ballot return deadlines. While votes must be postmarked by Election Day, absentee ballots are allowed if they arrive within 10 days of the election — or 15 days if coming from out of the country.

The long delay has caused some angst and plenty of speculation. While Senator Dan Sullivan, a Republican, has 63 percent of the vote so far, his Democratic challenger, Al Gross, said he believed the remaining votes would trend so much in his favor that he could win.

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Nick Corasaniti in Philadelphia

There are roughly 175,000 absentee ballots still to count in Pennsylvania, including more than 58,000 in Philadelphia. Major counties like Philadelphia will keep counting through the night.

See Pennsylvania results

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Nick Corasaniti in Philadelphia

Trump’s lead in Pennsylvania is now less than 24,000 votes after more results trickled in from Bucks and Delaware counties.

See Pennsylvania results

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Giulia McDonnell Nieto del Rio
Nov. 5, 2020, 11:53 p.m. ET

Dueling protests in Detroit a day after Biden flipped Michigan.

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Police officers kept watch as small groups of Trump supporters and Black Lives Matters protesters faced off in Detroit Thursday night.Credit...Bryan Denton for The New York Times

DETROIT — About 40 supporters of President Trump with megaphones and flags spent part of Thursday night in front of the TCF Center, where Detroit’s absentee ballots were being counted a day after Joseph R. Biden Jr. was declared the winner of Michigan. On the opposite side of the street stood about an equal number of Black Lives Matter demonstrators.

The two groups yelled at each other while the police kept watch. “Hey hey, ho ho, Donald Trump has got to go,” chanted the Black Lives Matter protesters. The Trump supporters would later amend the phrase: “Hey hey, ho ho, voter fraud has got to go.”

Though the night was largely peaceful, a scuffle ensued after a man from the conservative group walked into the opposing crowd. The police rushed in to break up the commotion, and someone sprayed mace into the eyes of the Trump supporter.

The man, who said he lived in Michigan but declined to identify himself, was dressed in a military-style uniform and said he was armed. “We’re here because they’re stealing the election right in front of us,” he said as he continued to wipe his eyes.

Steven Montgomery, a 38-year-old cook from Detroit who stood with the Black Lives Matter demonstrators, said he was excited to protest against the Trump supporters but wondered whether the demonstration had been beneficial in any way.

“They’re just babies,” he said, adding, “We really shouldn’t have even wasted our time.”

Michael Crowley
Nov. 5, 2020, 11:10 p.m. ET

Democrats urge Georgia voters to fix their absentee ballots before a Friday deadline.

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Absentee ballots are often rejected when the voter forgets to sign or uses a signature that does not match the one on file with the state.Credit...Audra Melton for The New York Times

With Georgia’s 16 electoral votes likely to be decided by a tiny margin, Democrats are urging voters there to fix absentee ballots that were rejected because of invalid or missing signatures before the deadline on Friday evening.

Those who voted absentee — a group that this year has been heavily Democratic — can check online to see whether election officials have accepted or rejected their ballots. Absentee ballots are often rejected when the voter forgets to sign or uses a signature that does not match the one on file with the state, possibly because it is many years old. Election officials are supposed to contact voters in such cases but are not always able to do so.

Voters have until 5 p.m. on Friday to submit a simple affidavit form to “cure” such ballots. With Georgia hanging in the balance as the last votes are counted, national Democrats — including Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York — are amplifying the message in hopes of salvaging every vote possible.

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Simon Romero
Nov. 5, 2020, 11:01 p.m. ET

Trump supporters gather in Phoenix, where ballots show a Biden lead.

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Trump supporters rally outside the Maricopa County Recorder’s Office in Phoenix on Thursday.Credit...Matt York/Associated Press

PHOENIX — Another protest by supporters of President Trump unfolded on Thursday night in front of the Phoenix building where ballots were being counted in Arizona’s largest county.

The mood among the roughly 200 people was somewhat less defiant than a night earlier, when protesters demanded to be allowed into the Maricopa County Recorder’s Office. Despite organizers’ pleas to avoid openly carrying firearms, numerous people wielding rifles milled about the crowd on Thursday. Some gave interviews to European television crews.

Those present did not sound thrilled when Maricopa County officials released the latest vote counts, which still show Joseph R. Biden Jr. ahead of Mr. Trump in what had long been a Republican stronghold.

“Those people inside need to see our presence,” Abelardo Delgado, 54, said about the people counting the remaining ballots.

Mr. Delgado, an auto mechanic and naturalized immigrant from Mexico, said he did not vote for Mr. Trump in 2016 because he considered the real estate developer a racist at the time. But Mr. Delgado changed his views, coming to appreciate Mr. Trump’s anti-abortion stance.

William Rainier, a Phoenix resident wearing a T-shirt emblazoned with “FNN — Fake News Network,” said he showed up to exercise his constitutional rights of freedom of speech and assembly.

At one juncture, Mr. Rainier repeatedly taunted a television reporter with profane language over what he described as anti-Trump reporting.

“All of us out here just want the votes to be counted correctly,” said Mr. Rainier, 34, who said he was a landlord. Asked whether he would accept a result in which Mr. Biden wins Arizona, Mr. Rainier said, “If the results are audited and there was no fraud, I think I would.”

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Nick Corasaniti in Philadelphia

Philadelphia releases its first batch of results in hours, netting Biden more than 10,000 votes. The Trump lead in Pennsylvania is now around 26,000 votes.

See Pennsylvania results

Maggie Astor
Nov. 5, 2020, 10:41 p.m. ET

What’s happened today in the vote count: 3 states improved for Biden, and 1 for Trump.

No states were called for either President Trump or Joseph R. Biden Jr. on Thursday, but we got a lot closer to final results. Here’s what happened in the four states that were actively counting ballots today. (Two other uncalled states, Alaska and North Carolina, aren’t expected to significantly update their counts until next week.)

  • Arizona: Newly counted ballots in Maricopa and Pima Counties narrowed Mr. Biden’s lead in the state from about 69,000 votes to 46,000.

  • Georgia: Mr. Trump’s lead here, which was over 18,000 at the beginning of the day, has nearly vanished. Mr. Biden now trails by less than 2,000 votes.

  • Nevada: Mr. Trump had hoped the margin would narrow here, but Mr. Biden expanded his lead instead, from about 8,000 votes to more than 11,000.

  • Pennsylvania: At the beginning of the day, Mr. Trump led by more than 160,000 votes. By the end of the day, he led by less than 37,000.

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Stephanie Saul in New York

Of the votes yet to be counted in Georgia, more than 5,000 come from Clayton County, a heavily Democratic area south of Atlanta.

See Georgia results

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Stephanie Saul in New York

Biden continues to close the gap with Trump in Georgia, where the president’s margin has shrunk to 1,902 votes.

See Georgia results

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Nick Corasaniti in Philadelphia

With more votes coming in from Monroe County in eastern Pennsylvania, Trump’s margin in the state is down to 42,000 — with at least 208,000 ballots left to count statewide.

See Pennsylvania results

Michael Crowley
Nov. 5, 2020, 9:56 p.m. ET

Republican officials distance themselves from Trump’s claims of election fraud.

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Senator Mitt Romney walks past reporters asking questions as he heads into a Republican Luncheon last month in Washington, D.C.Credit...Samuel Corum for The New York Times

President Trump’s false claims of voter fraud drew little support from Republican officials on Thursday, with several either rebuking the president or offering statements that stopped far short of endorsing his views.

“Counting every vote is at the heart of democracy,” Senator Mitt Romney of Utah wrote on Twitter, implicitly rejecting Mr. Trump’s extraordinary call for halting vote counts in states where he leads. “Have faith in democracy, in our Constitution, and in the American people,” he said.

“All votes that comply with Pennsylvania law must be counted, regardless of how long the process takes,” Senator Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania said in a statement. Though expressing concern that Philadelphia’s vote counting “lacks transparency,” Mr. Toomey concluded that “all parties involved must accept the outcome of the election regardless of whether they won or lost.”

“There is no defense for the President’s comments tonight undermining our Democratic process,” tweeted Gov. Larry Hogan of Maryland, a frequent Trump critic. “No election or person is more important than our Democracy.”

Shortly after Mr. Trump’s remarks at the White House, Vice President Mike Pence issued a statement of support, but one that did not echo the president’s talk of conspiracy and fraud. “I Stand With President @realDonaldTrump. We must count every LEGAL vote,” Mr. Pence tweeted, echoing none of the president’s charges of fraud and conspiracy.

Multiple Republicans indirectly suggested that Mr. Trump had presented no actual evidence of wrongdoing.

“If a candidate believes a state is violating election laws they have a right to challenge it in court & produce evidence in support of their claims,” tweeted Senator Marco Rubio of Florida. He also reposted a tweet from Wednesday in which he said: “Taking days to count legally cast votes is NOT fraud. And court challenges to votes cast after the legal voting deadline is NOT suppression.”

Without naming Mr. Trump, Representative Adam Kinzinger of Illinois tweeted that “if you have legit concerns about fraud present EVIDENCE and take it to court. STOP Spreading debunked misinformation.”

“This is getting insane,” he added.

Mr. Trump’s former campaign manager, Brad Parscale, tweeted what seemed to be partly a plea and partly a threat:

“If you want to win in 2024 as a Republican. I would probably start saying something. Just saying,” he wrote. But on Thursday night, there was little sign of that happening.

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The New York Times
Nov. 5, 2020, 9:35 p.m. ET

In photos: Who’s that disguised as City Hall?

Here are some of the interesting characters that our photographers captured at the rallies and protests on Day 3.

Alicia Parlapiano headshot

 

Alicia Parlapiano in Washington

Maricopa County will post its next report Friday at 11 a.m. ET. Officials there say they have 204,000 more early ballots to process, and a smaller number of provisional and other ballots.

See Arizona results

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Alicia Parlapiano in Washington

With the update we just got from Maricopa County, Biden’s margin over Trump in Arizona has narrowed to 1.5 points from 2.4 points this morning. About 46,000 votes separate them.

See Arizona results

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Jennifer Medina in Phoenix

With another batch of votes in Maricopa County (Phoenix), Biden’s lead in Arizona has shrunk. These are the last votes expected to be reported by Maricopa tonight.

See Arizona results

Maggie Astor headshot

 

Maggie Astor in New York

Biden continues to gain ground in Georgia. Trump now leads there by just 2,497 votes. Another 16,105 votes remain to be counted.

See Georgia results

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Nick Corasaniti in Philadelphia

Biden continues to improve in Pennsylvania, where he just picked up a net of 2,500 votes in red Mercer County, where Trump currently has 63 percent of the vote.

See Pennsylvania results

Alicia Parlapiano headshot

 

Alicia Parlapiano in Washington

Around 9 p.m Eastern time we’re expecting more results from Maricopa County (Phoenix), where the majority of Arizona’s uncounted votes remain.

See Arizona results

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Nick Corasaniti in Philadelphia

Trump’s lead in Pennsylvania is down to just over 50,000, with at least 250,000 mail ballots left to count in the state.

See Pennsylvania results

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Stephanie Saul in New York

In Georgia, where Trump’s lead over Biden has shrunk to 3,486, only 18,936 ballots remain uncounted, according to Jordan Fuchs, the deputy secretary of state.

See Georgia results

Nick Corasaniti headshot

 

Nick Corasaniti in Philadelphia

Trump’s margin continues to shrink in Pennsylvania as Biden surges in Philadelphia’s suburbs. Updates from Delaware and Bucks counties gave Biden a net gain of 5,400 votes.

See Pennsylvania results

Maggie Astor
Nov. 5, 2020, 8:30 p.m. ET

A group of 19 former U.S. attorneys condemns Trump’s ‘baseless and reckless’ claims of election fraud.

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Votes are counted at the Fulton County election headquarters in Atlanta.Credit...Lynsey Weatherspoon for The New York Times

Nineteen former United States attorneys — all of whom served under Republican presidents — released a statement on Thursday calling President Trump’s legal threats, claims of fraud and false declarations of victory “premature, baseless and reckless.”

“We hereby call upon the president to patiently and respectfully allow the lawful vote-counting process to continue, in accordance with applicable federal and state laws, and to avoid any further comments or other actions which can serve only to undermine our democracy,” wrote the attorneys.

The attorneys countered Mr. Trump’s false suggestions that it is somehow wrong to count ballots after Election Day — something states do in every election. “Whether it takes days, or even weeks, for that process to conclude, it must be allowed to take place in a way that is open, fair and lawful, and without any improper political interference,” they said.

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Nov. 5, 2020, 8:14 p.m. ET

California’s ballot measures show the complexity of a state known as a liberal stronghold.

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A street party in San Francisco on Tuesday.Credit...Jim Wilson/The New York Times

OAKLAND, Calif. — In the presidential race, California affirmed its reputation as a stronghold for Democrats. But down the ballot, a more complex picture of the state’s voters emerged: one of strong libertarian impulses and resistance to some quintessentially liberal ideas.

In a series of referendums, voters in California rejected affirmative action, decisively shot down an expansion of rent control and eviscerated a law that gives greater labor protections for ride-share and delivery drivers. A measure that would have raised taxes on commercial landlords to raise billions for a state that sorely needs revenue also seemed on track for defeat.

The results provided something of a gut check for liberals in a state that plays a big role in the Democratic Party and often offers insights into where the rest of the nation might head.

“The results in California show the Democrats that you can go too far,” said Bob Shrum, a former Democratic strategist and the director of the Dornsife Center for the Political Future at the University of Southern California. “California is a very liberal state that is now resistant to higher taxes and welcoming to the new gig economy, which is where the industry was created.”

It’s not that California is lurching rightward; the state is unwaveringly Democratic up and down the ranks of its government. But these mixed results for liberal viewpoints were not an anomaly.

California has always had competing impulses. The state that is home to Nancy Pelosi, the House speaker, also produced icons of conservatism, including Ronald Reagan. Some of the most prominent conservative voices during the Trump presidency hail from California, including Kevin McCarthy, the House minority leader; Devin Nunes, the outspoken congressman and staunch Trump ally; and Stephen Miller, the hard-line anti-immigration White House adviser.

Nate Cohn
Nov. 5, 2020, 10:54 a.m. ET

Analysis: Biden appears to have an edge in the votes that have yet to be counted.

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Vote counting in Atlanta on Thursday.Credit...Lynsey Weatherspoon for The New York Times

The Upshot’s Nate Cohn analyzed the votes remaining to be counted in key battleground states and patterns of vote tabulation thus far. Here’s a brief state-by-state look, excerpted from Nate’s full analysis.

  • Pennsylvania: So far, Joseph R. Biden Jr., the Democratic candidate, has been winning absentee votes, 77 percent to 22 percent, according to the Pennsylvania secretary of state. At that pace, he needs only 288,000 more mail votes before taking the lead. By my count, there are about 500,000 mail ballots left. The secretary of state reported a total of 2.6 million absentee ballots cast as of Tuesday, and so far 2.1 million absentee votes have been counted. If Mr. Biden won those 500,000 ballots by the same pace, he would end with a lead of about 100,000 votes in the state. That’s a pretty decent cushion. That estimate may also be conservative. The remaining mail ballots are disproportionately in Democratic counties, and there are more remaining absentee votes than estimated here.

  • Arizona: Joe Biden’s lead in Arizona fell to 2.4 points Wednesday night, as late mail ballots broke toward Mr. Trump by a significant margin. This runs counter to the pattern we’ve seen elsewhere in the country, but it was expected, or at least not a surprise. Over all, Mr. Trump won the ballots counted in Arizona on Wednesday night by about 23 points. It’s hard to say whether that pace will be enough for Mr. Trump to win, since it depends on exactly how many ballots are left, what kinds of late mail ballots are left, and what kinds of votes were counted Wednesday night.

    No matter how you cut the data, it’s hard not to arrive at the conclusion that Mr. Biden’s lead will withstand the late vote. But there’s also enough uncertainty with the number and kind of ballots left that it would be a mistake to be too sure about it. Certainly, it is too soon to project the state for Mr. Biden.

  • Georgia: The president’s lead in the state all but vanished overnight as heavily Democratic ballots in the Atlanta area were finally counted. There are still more absentee ballots left for Mr. Biden. It’s not clear exactly how many ballots there are and where; there was conflicting information this morning, and things are so close that even modest differences will be decisive. We also don’t have a number on the provisional ballot count, but we’re in the territory where that’s a potentially crucial factor.

  • Nevada: Mr. Biden still holds a lead, and the remaining vote comes from mail ballots received on Election Day and provisionals. There’s reason to expect these will pad Mr. Biden’s lead: Democrats were outpacing Republicans by a two-to-one margin in the state’s mail ballot returns, and provisionals lean Democratic just about everywhere. But we should get more data today.

  • North Carolina: We’re still waiting on how many mail ballots arrived after the election, and whether they’re enough to overcome the president’s lead. There’s not much reason to expect it, but here again we’ll wait to be sure.

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