A real quarterback in Jarrett Stidham gives Auburn a real shot at Alabama

We hold this truth to be self-evident. You need your quarterback to have a special day to beat Alabama.

It can be a special quarterback having a special day, like Tim Tebow, Johnny Manziel and Deshaun Watson, or a good quarterback having a great day like Stephen Garcia, Trevor Knight, Bo Wallace, Cardale Jones and Chad Kelly.

With the exception of LSU during the 2011 regular season, you don't beat Nick Saban's Alabama program with an ordinary quarterback having an ordinary day.

Recent history shows you can tweak that truth a bit where Auburn is concerned. To even have a chance to beat Alabama, the Tigers need two things. They need an unquestioned starting quarterback who's owned the job from the beginning of the season, and they need to get him to the Iron Bowl on time.

Jarrett Stidham says hi.

This year's Auburn starter is the real deal, which is one big reason No. 6 Auburn has a real shot to beat No. 1 Alabama on Saturday. His numbers prove it and so does the consistent balance of an offense that's set a school record by scoring 40 or more points in each of its six SEC victories.

Stidham is a huge boost for Gus Malzahn, whose seven games of Iron Bowl experience as Auburn's offensive coordinator or head coach have fallen into one of two categories.

When he had a season-long starter ready, willing and able to go the distance in the final regular-season game, he had a chance against Alabama. When he didn't, he had almost no chance.

Those no-chance Iron Bowls came at the end of Auburn seasons full of quarterback roulette based on injury, ineffectiveness, inexplicable strategy and general instability at the most important position on the field.

The last two years, Jeremy Johnson had to take the bulk of the snaps against the always formidable Alabama defense thanks to Sean White's injuries. It didn't go well for the Tigers.

In 2016, Johnson, John Franklin III and, yes, Chandler Cox combined to complete 7 of 19 passes for 116 yards with no touchdowns and one interception. They also ran for 13 yards. That total of 129 yards of production from that position wasn't close to enough. Auburn lost 30-12.

In 2015, Johnson went 10 for 23 for 170 yards passing, lost 18 yards rushing through sacks and finished with 152 total yards. Auburn lost 29-13.

In 2011, Malzahn's last year as Auburn's coordinator and play-caller, Clint Moseley and Kiehl Frazier combined to complete 11 of 20 for 62 yards with no touchdowns and one pick. Add 20 rushing yards, and they finished with 82 total yards. Auburn lost 42-14 and didn't score an offensive touchdown.

In those three games without a full-time, clear-cut starter, Auburn's quarterbacks completed 28 of 62 passes for 348 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. Those quarterbacks ran for 15 yards to total 363 yards.

Is it any wonder Auburn scored, in reverse order, 12, 13 and 14 points in those lopsided defeats?

Now contrast how competitive Malzahn and the Tigers have been against the Tide with their full-season starter at quarterback.

In 2009, Chris Todd completed 15 of 27 passes for 181 yards with two touchdowns and one interception. He added 2 rushing yards for 183 total yards as Alabama had to come from behind on its final drive to win 26-21.

In 2010, Cam Newton went 13 for 20 for 216 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions. He ran 22 times for 39 yards and another touchdown to total 255 yards and four scores. The eventual Heisman winner led the greatest comeback in Iron Bowl history as Auburn won 28-27.

In 2013, Nick Marshall completed 11 of 16 passes for 97 yards with two touchdowns, including the pop pass that tied the game in the final minute, and ran 17 times for 99 yards and another touchdown to finish with 196 total yards. The Kick Six gave Auburn its 34-28 win.

In 2014, Marshall simply torched the Alabama defense. He went 27 for 43 for a school-record 456 passing yards with three touchdowns and one pick. He ran 13 times for 49 yards to compile 505 total yards. But Blake Sims and Amari Cooper left burn marks all over Auburn's defense, too, as the Tide won the highest-scoring Iron Bowl 55-44.

If you're scoring at home, in the four games against Alabama in which Malzahn has had his full-time, clear-cut starting quarterback, Todd, Newton and Marshall combined to complete 66 of 106 passes for 950 yards with 10 touchdowns and two interceptions. Those quarterbacks also ran for 189 yards to total 1,139 yards of offense themselves.

Auburn split those four games but was competitive in the fourth quarter even in the two losses.

So the formula has been written, and it figures to play out this way again Saturday. Auburn will play Alabama with a real quarterback, which gives the Tigers a real shot to beat the Crimson Tide.

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